Economist: “Biden has 87% Chance of Winning 2020 Elections”
As the country gears up to the 2020 Presidential election, media outlets have been eyeing their forecasts on who would sit as the next commander-in-chief of the United States.
In fact, the Economist predicted that former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden has a whopping 87 percent chance of winning the upcoming elections. On Wednesday, the magazine revealed that Biden could win by huge percentage points against Trump, who only had a 13 percent chance.
The media outlet forecasted that Biden has a whopping 98 percent chance of winning “the most states” in the elections, which might give him as much as 412 electoral votes. This might seem like a landslide, given that it can only take 270 votes for a candidate to win the presidency. Currently, The Economist estimated that Biden could get 337 electoral votes.
For Trump, the number seemed dire as the same sentiment echoes across numerous surveys. For example, in a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, the results show that Biden had doubled his six-point lead to a whopping 12 points. The poll cites that 56 percent of American voters are more likely to vote for Biden, while 44 percent aired their support for Trump. The Harvard Poll cites that after enjoying 11 months of positive ratings, Trump faced a huge blow during the coronavirus outbreak as his ratings declined below 50 percent. The survey cites explicitly that Trump’s Clorox statement came as a tipping point of his ratings.
According to Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll’s Mark Penn, “[Trump] continues to lag in the national presidential horse race while Biden’s numbers have shown no change up to or down.” Penn also believed that while the Democratic nominee might be taking the lead, it is still too early to predict how the November election would go. The poll, which took place between June 17-18, covers 1, 886 registered voters.
In another poll, the New York Times/Siena College survey also claimed that Biden holds a 14-point lead over Trump. The survey, which was conducted between June 17-22, and covered 1,337 voters revealed that 50 percent of people are supporting Biden, as compared to 36 percent for Trump. As the survey sites, “the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.”
NYT poll: Biden takes a dominant lead over Trump, 50 to 36— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) June 24, 2020
Trump bleeding support even from once-loyal groups of whites and men
On the biggest challenges of his term, much of the country sees Trump as a failed president@ByMattStevens @jmartNYT & me 👇https://t.co/dNysAwZUoY
Moreover, in a report from The Patriot Hill, even pollster Nate Silver boasted that America can expect a Biden landslide according to his forecast.
However, the polls present a huge problem.
That’s because, in 2016, media establishments and pollsters made the same mistake of placing the bet on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Based on their “polling, economic and demographic data,” the media outlet predicted that Clinton had a huge chance of winning. Other media establishments agree, such as The New York Times, who claimed that the Secretary of State can win by 91%, while the Princeton Election Consortium agreed that she had as much as 99% chance of snagging the presidency.
Despite the numerous predictions and overconfidence that Clinton could win, she didn’t. In fact, the country welcomed Trump as the 45th President of the United States.